The forecast for TPBank's Q3 profit indicates the strongest growth.

In its Q3 2024 profit forecast report, MB Securities (MBS) predicts that the net profit of banks may increase by 16.5% year-on-year, serving as a crucial support for overall stock market profit growth.

Accordingly, MBS expects credit growth in Q3 to continue improving compared to Q2 (with credit growth reaching 7.38% as of September 17, 2024, compared to 6% at the end of Q2 2024) due to the recovery of business activities.

The net interest margin (NIM) in Q3 is forecasted to remain stable or decrease slightly compared to the beginning of the year. According to MBS, most banks are gradually raising deposit interest rates to enhance fundraising activities, while lending rates are expected to remain low to support the economy.

Non-interest income remains lackluster and has not yet recovered, mainly relying on fee income and debt management. Foreign exchange and securities trading activities are projected to show no significant growth, as the market situation has not improved much.

Regarding asset quality, the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of listed banks in Q3 is expected to remain unchanged compared to the previous quarter, as outstanding loans to corporate customers will continue to lead credit growth during this period.

At the same time, banks will slow down provisioning in the second half of 2024 due to limited growth in loans from individual customers. As a result, the provisioning buffer is forecasted to decline due to slower provisioning, but banks will continue to maintain bad debt write-off activities similar to the first half of the year.

With these forecasts, MBS believes that several banks will achieve outstanding profit growth, such as HDBank (+44%) and TPBank (+35%) thanks to high credit growth; Eximbank (+70%) and VietinBank (+40%) due to a low base in the same period.

High Profit Growth Banks

Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank (TPBank) is forecasted to have after-tax profit growth of 35% year-on-year in Q3 and 23% for the entire year. MBS notes that the bank's reduction of lending rates will stimulate credit demand. Additionally, TPBank may continue to increase provisioning to strengthen its buffer.

Vietnam Export-Import Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Eximbank) is projected by MBS to have the highest profit growth in Q3, at 70% year-on-year, due to a low base and NIM maintaining comparable levels to Q2. For the entire year of 2024, Eximbank's profit is expected to rise by only 16%.

Ho Chi Minh City Development Commercial Joint Stock Bank (HDBank) is expected to achieve profit growth of 44% in Q3 and 31% for the entire year of 2024. MBS forecasts that HDBank's credit growth will continue to be positive, as in the first half of the year, while NIM is projected to decrease slightly to 5% in Q3, providing HDBank with additional room to reduce lending rates. Additionally, provisioning costs are expected to increase significantly compared to the same period.

Vietnam Loc Phat Commercial Joint Stock Bank (LPBank) is expected to achieve a profit growth of 41% year-on-year, thanks to a low base in 2024. For the entire year, LPBank's profit will increase by 46%. At the same time, the bank is expected to be granted additional credit room after reaching a growth threshold of 15%. NPLs are expected to decrease slightly compared to Q2 as the bank enhances debt handling.

Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank) is expected to grow by 40% year-on-year, with NIM maintaining levels similar to the first half of the year and provisioning costs remaining stable. For the entire year of 2024, VietinBank's profit is expected to grow by 12%.

Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank (VPBank) is expected to see a profit increase of 37% in Q3 and 69% for the entire year of 2024. According to MBS, NIM in Q3 is expected to remain comparable to the first half of the year, facilitating accelerated credit growth. The consumer lending segment is anticipated to make a significant contribution to overall credit growth, while provisioning costs are expected to be similar to the previous quarter.

Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank (Sacombank) is expected to face limited credit room in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, NIM is forecasted to decline significantly in the second half of the year. The cost-to-income ratio (CIR) remains at 49%, which is significantly higher than the industry average. However, provisioning costs will decrease as there will be no further provisioning for VAMC bonds. Consequently, Sacombank's profit growth in Q3 is projected at 29% and 9% for the entire year.

Techcombank is expected to see a profit increase of 20% in Q3 and 34% for the entire year. In Techcombank's case, MBS believes that credit growth will slow down as the credit room is limited. NIM is expected to be maintained at 4.5% - 4.6% due to CASA advantages and low funding costs, although lending rates are expected to continue to decline slightly, particularly in the real estate lending segment. Non-interest income is projected to slow down as fees from the investment banking segment cool off compared to the first half of the year. Provisioning costs are expected to remain similar to Q2.

Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) is expected to record profit growth of 20% in Q3 and 17% for the entire year, thanks to improved credit conditions. Additionally, the pressure from increasing NPLs is expected to ease in Q3, as the Group 2 loans have decreased by 46 basis points (bps) in the previous quarter.

Low Profit Growth Group

In MBS's list, there are also four banks projected to have profit growth lower than the industry average.

Among them, the profit of Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade (Vietcombank) is expected to increase by 9% in Q3 and 5% for the entire year. According to MBS, Vietcombank will maintain a growth momentum of 12% due to a recovery in personal loan demand. NIM is expected to remain stable compared to Q2, as Vietcombank continues to lead in reducing interest rates to support customers. Additionally, NPLs are expected to improve slightly as Group 2 loans show a declining trend.

For Asia Commercial Bank (ACB), profit in Q3 is forecasted to grow by 7% and 6% for the entire year, amid a slight decline in NIM and limited credit room. However, provisioning costs are expected to decrease slightly compared to the previous quarter.

International Commercial Bank of Vietnam (VIB) is projected to see a profit decrease of 19% in Q3 and 10% for the entire year. In Q3, credit growth is expected to be better than in the first half of the year, thanks to increased secondary home loans driven by low interest rates and a strong apartment market. Additionally, loans for vehicle purchases and credit cards are also expected to rise due to major festive seasons throughout the year. NIM is expected to remain at 3.8% in the second half of the year. Provisioning costs are expected to increase by approximately 12% year-on-year due to a high base in 2023, aimed at creating a larger buffer for handling bad debts as credit growth increases.

For Orient Commercial Bank (OCB), MBS believes that profit will decline due to a high base in 2023. NIM is expected to decrease as credit growth does not meet expectations and retail lending rates must drop to attract credit. Provisioning costs are expected to remain similar to Q2 and are forecasted to be twice as high as in the same period last year. Analysts project profit in Q3 and for the entire year of 2024 for OCB to decrease by 20% year-on-year.