The latest forecast for year-end deposit interest rates

The deposit interest rates are expected to continue rising as banks intensify their efforts to raise capital for lending.

Statistics from the Vietnam Banking Association (VNBA) over the past month show that 18 commercial banks have increased interest rates, 6 have decreased rates, and unexpectedly, 3 banks have both increased and decreased rates for certain terms.

Among them, the most significant increase was seen at SeABank, with a 0.85 percentage point rise for the 6-month term, bringing the rate to 4.6% per year for customers depositing at the counter. The 9-month term rose by 0.79 percentage points to 4.74% per year, while the 3-month term increased by 0.65 percentage points to 4.1% per year. The highest rate at this bank is currently 5.75% per year for the 24-36 month term at the counter, with interest paid at maturity.

Agribank also recorded interest rate increases over the past month, with a 0.5 percentage point rise for terms from 1 to 9 months, bringing the rates to 2.2%-3.5% per year for counter deposits. The highest rate at Agribank is currently 4.8% per year for the 24-month term at the counter.

At many other banks, deposit interest rates have risen slightly by 0.1-0.3 percentage points per year for both counter and online deposits. Statistics from the Vietnam Banking Association (VNBA) show that 6 banks have slightly reduced interest rates by 0.1% per year for certain terms, both for counter and online deposits. These banks include: BacABank, Indovina, BaoVietBank, NCB, Nam A Bank, and ABBank.

Three banks have simultaneously increased and decreased interest rates for certain terms: Indovina, BaoVietBank, and NCB.

Regarding the interest rate trend from now until the end of the year, Mr. Nguyễn Hưng, CEO of TPBank, stated that the rise in interest rates is mainly short-term, partly due to pressure from the USD/VND exchange rate. He forecast that at the beginning of 2025, interest rates will remain at a lower level as the U.S. and many other central banks reduce rates. The pressure for further rate hikes in the near future is not expected to be high, primarily in the short term.

In the latest update on the money market, experts from MBS Securities Company mentioned that after about two months of stagnation, deposit interest rates started to rise again in November, with 16 banks—including major ones like Agribank, Techcombank, and MB—raising savings rates by 0.1 to 0.7 percentage points. "This upward trend is expected to continue until the end of the year, as credit growth is accelerating nearly twice as fast as the growth in capital mobilization. The recovery of credit growth, with production and investment picking up in the year-end period, will put some pressure on system liquidity and may lead to higher input interest rates," said Ms. Trần Khánh Hiền, MBS Securities’ Chief Analyst.

Based on these factors, it is forecasted that the 12-month deposit rates of large commercial banks could increase by an additional 0.2 percentage points, ranging around 5.1%-5.2% by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Mr. Đinh Quang Hinh, Head of the Macroeconomic and Market Strategy Department at VNDIRECT Securities, stated that the rising credit demand is putting pressure on deposit interest rates. As of November 28, the average 12-month deposit rate had increased slightly by 0.02 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 4.83% per year. It is expected that the average 12-month deposit rate will be around 4.9%-5% by the end of this year.