Thanks to its CASA advantage, TPBank's (TPB) profit this year could reach nearly VND 6,000 billion.

With a significant increase in the proportion of non-term deposits and considerable room for lending, TPBank's (stock code TPB) profit this year could reach nearly VND 6,000 billion.

As of the end of Q2 2024, TPBank's CASA ratio has climbed to 5th place, up from 7th place in the previous quarter.

At the close of the first half of this year, Tien Phong Commercial Joint Stock Bank (TPBank, stock code TPB - HoSE) recorded net interest income of approximately VND 6,663 billion and after-tax profit of nearly VND 2,986 billion, representing increases of 14.2% and 10.3%, respectively, compared to the same period last year. This means the bank has completed 40% of its after-tax profit target for the year.

According to a recent evaluation by VNDirect Securities, TPBank's full-year after-tax profit could reach VND 5,948 billion, a 33% increase compared to 2023.

VNDirect Securities forecasts that TPBank's credit growth for the entire year could reach 15.5%, primarily driven by strong demand for business loans and home loans in the second half of 2024.

Business loans are expected to continue expanding, particularly due to refinancing needs from real estate developers and stronger export activities. Additionally, TPBank's lending to the construction and manufacturing sectors began to rise in Q2 2024, thanks to a recovery in the industrial sector during the first half of the year.

TPBank's LDR ratio is lower than that of other banks, which helps reduce pressure on increasing deposit interest rates to attract funds in the second half of the year. (Source: FiinPro, VNDirect Securities)

Regarding home loans, VNDirect Securities expects TPBank to see positive growth in personal home loans in the second half of 2024.

Notably, the real estate market in Hanoi is recovering faster than in Ho Chi Minh City, which presents a significant opportunity for TPBank, as more than 60% of the bank’s net interest income comes from the northern market.

Additionally, TPBank's loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) is estimated to be around 67% at the end of Q2 2024. At the same time, the ratio of short-term funding used for medium- and long-term lending remains below 30%. Therefore, VNDirect Securities believes that TPBank will not face significant pressure to increase deposit interest rates. This provides room for the bank to reduce lending rates and attract customers without significantly affecting its NIM.

According to VNDirect Securities, TPBank’s NIM in 2024 is expected to improve compared to 2023, reaching 4.1%, thanks to lower deposit interest rates and an increase in CASA deposits.

As of the end of Q2 2024, TPBank’s CASA ratio has climbed to 5th place from 7th place in the previous quarter (based on data from the 25 largest listed banks). VNDirect Securities expects the bank's CASA ratio to continue improving in 2024-2025, driven by inflows from corporate clients and small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), who benefit from the convenience of TPBank's Livebank platform.